NHL Insider believes Alex Tuch could draw interest from the Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers have been busy over the past week, locking up core players to contract extensions and signing free agent Jack Roslovic to a one-year deal. Any other meaningful additions to the roster this season will likely come several months from now as we approach the trade deadline. That said, it sounds like the team has already been watching the market for top-six wingers.

NHL Network insider, David Pagnotta, mentioned on a recent episode of Daily Faceoff Live that Alex Tuch could be an option for Edmonton if the Buffalo Sabres fall out of the playoff race. Tuch, 29, is in 

“If this team doesn’t have him signed, and by the halfway point…we already know we’re focusing on ‘26-’27…Then I think you start to have discussions out there; the Oilers would be one of them,” said Pagnotta.

It’s easy to see why Tuch would be an intriguing player for Edmonton. He’s got two 30-goal campaigns under his belt and has produced at over a 60-point pace in four consecutive seasons. The 6’4” winger has the size and skill that any team would love in their top six. We don’t have a crystal ball to see whether the Sabres become sellers between now and the deadline, but Tuch is undoubtedly a great fit. Let’s take a closer look.

Tuch’s playstyle

Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid have shown throughout their careers how well they play with effective forecheckers on their lines. In the past three seasons, McDavid has played most of his 5-on-5 minutes with Zach Hyman, a tenacious forechecker who has a knack for getting open near the net. McDavid and Hyman have outscored the opposition 180-107 together since 2022-23. They have had over 62% of the goals and expected goals, an incredible feat.

Draisaitl played much of last season with Vasily Podkolzin, another forechecker who likes to get in the dirty areas and retrieve pucks. They also easily outscored the opposition, finishing with a 58.7% share of the goals and 61.6% of the expected goals.

Tuch fits the mould of an ideal linemate for 97 and 29, with the speed, forechecking and skill to get the superstars the puck and get into danger areas. Look at his percentiles relative to the rest of the NHL in some key microstat rates:

Forechecking

• Forecheck Pressures: 81%
• Recovered Dump-ins: 64%

Passing

• Shot Assists: 68%
• High Danger Passes: 87%

Transition

• Controlled Entries 45%
• Ctrl. Entry Chances 89%
• Controlled Exits 59%
• Exit Success Rate 90%

What can we learn from this data? Tuch is a versatile player. He is aggressive on the forecheck and comes out winning the puck more often than most. He’s also a terrific transition player, both when it comes to exiting the defensive zone and creating chances off the rush.

Another helpful skill Tuch possesses is an efficient shot. Over the past three seasons, he has shot 14.5% at 5v5, just a hair better than Draisaitl, who has a 14.4% shooting percentage. Shooting efficiency is the one area where both Hyman and Podkolzin typically fall short, even next to McDavid and Draisaitl. The one season where Hyman shot well over 13% playing in Edmonton’s top six, he exploded for 54 goals; however, he typically falls well short of the efficiency he achieved that year. 

Overall, Tuch plays the exact brand of hockey that brings out the best in McDavid and Draisaitl — fast, heavy, skilled, and a willingness to go straight to the net. It’s easy to see why Edmonton would have him circled on their deadline wish list.

Does Targeting Tuch make sense for the Oilers?

You can never have too many top-six forwards in the NHL. Tuch would make the Oilers better both in terms of their process and efficiency. While he would fit this team like a glove, there are still several questions to be answered before they can commit to such a high-profile acquisition like this. If Edmonton spends its assets on him, it will be difficult to upgrade the goaltending, a position that has been inconsistent for the Oilers for quite some time.

If Stuart Skinner finds success this season under new goalie coach Peter Aubry, or if Connor Ingram sees a resurgence back to NHL starter level, there may be no need for a goalie. That would open up options to upgrade the top six forwards, but if none of those things happen, Edmonton might prioritize acquiring a proven starting goalie before considering a player like Tuch. It would be tough to blame them in that scenario, considering the recent history of dicey goaltending performances, especially in the playoffs.

There are numerous things to monitor as the season progresses. I fully expect the Oilers to be patient and see how their new line combinations play out, as well as how their goaltenders perform. In a few months, we will have more clarity on Edmonton’s most pressing needs.

If the Sabres stumble and can’t get an extension done, don’t be surprised if Tuch’s name starts popping up again in several months.