It's almost impossible to look at the Miami Heat's situation heading into the 2025-26 NBA season and feel as if Pat Riley has put them in a position to succeed. In fact, considering they find themselves stuck in NBA mediocrity, which could end up being for the foreseeable future, the argument could be made that Riley has put the team in the worst possible position it could be in.
The Heat's identity is somewhat of an unknown. They have two expensive All-Star players, who may not be good enough to operate as the team's No. 1 or 2 options, and are not considered a serious contender.
Even if a perfect situation were to play out this season for the Heat, they'd be, at best, a middling playoff team in the Eastern Conference with virtually no path toward real postseason glory.
To make matters even more bleak heading into the future, the team has a monstrous decision to make on Tyler Herro, who is eligible for a contract extension on October 1. It's a decision that may not have a clear right answer.
The Heat are in a lose-lose situation
If the Heat were to give Herro the extension he's likely seeking, the team would be in a bad salary cap situation, locked into a team with a limited ceiling
If the Heat were to pass on giving Herro an extension, they'd be forced to trade Herro for pennies on the dollar, or be in grave danger of losing him for nothing next summer.
Again, the Heat are not in a very enviable situation, and Riley has been the puppet master behind it all.
After all, it was Riley who largely should get the blame for "running" Jimmy Butler out of town. It's Riley who made that decision without having a clear plan B ready to go and in place. The Heat's main decision-makers very much operate in more of a collective now, but Riley is largely the face of it all.
If he gets the credit when the Heat are successful, he also deserves the blame when it's due.
Right now, the Heat are in a difficult spot. But that doesn't mean they can't work their way out of it. They've done it time and time before, and that's partly what has helped make Riley a Hall-of-Fame-worthy executive over the last few decades in Miami.
The question is, can he work his magic once again? Before it's too late? As the start of training camp quickly approaches, that's one of the bigger questions for the Heat and Riley.
