Daniel Carlson Prediction Could Mean Big Things for 2025 Raiders

Predictably, the 2024-25 Las Vegas Raiders didn’t receive a ton of national buzz. Their on-field struggles stemmed from lackluster coaching, but mostly a poor roster with not enough high-end talent. That was reflected by just two players — tight end Brock Bowers and defensive end Maxx Crosby — being named to the original Pro Bowl group.

Could that number increase as the Pete Carroll era kicks off? One outlet is making the case for it.

In an August 14 story for NFL.com, Kevin Patra listed one player from each team who could be a first-time Pro Bowler. Las Vegas’ representative comes from special teams. Kicker Daniel Carlson, one of the best in the field, got the nod.

Writer Predicts Daniel Carlson Could Make First Pro Bowl Team of Career

Patra believes there’s never been a more opportune time for someone like Carlson to swoop in and claim a spot.

“After going to Justin Tucker for years, the AFC’s Pro Bowl kicking spot is no longer an afterthought for absent-minded voters,” Patra wrote. “So Carlson can obtain the honor he deserved a few years ago. The Raiders kicker is coming off a down season by his standards, connecting on 85% of his boots and missing two PATs in 2024. However, he was perfect inside 40 yards, and the bulk of his botches were 50-plus yarders. Vegas’ revamped offense, now led by Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty, should be more potent, putting Carlson in a position to put more points on the board.”

Indeed, 2024-25 was more of a down year for Carlson, a first-team All-Pro just two seasons prior. His 85% efficiency rate on field goals marked his lowest since 2019, the worst year of his career. If he can return to his 2020-2022 form (93% on 115 combined attempts), he’d have a shot. Below are the numbers from the last five AFC Pro Bowl kickers:

• Chris Boswell (Pittsburgh Steelers): 41-of-44 (93.2%) on field goals, 100% on extra points
• Tucker (Baltimore Ravens): 32-of-37 (86.5%) on field goals, 98.1% on extra points
• Tucker: 37-of-43 (86%) on field goals, 96.9% on extra points
• Tucker: 35-of-37 (94.6%) on field goals, 100% on extra points
• Tucker: 26-of-29 (89.7%) on field goals, 98.1% on extra points

With the Tucker era being a thing of the past, there isn’t as much competition for Carlson. It’s odd to see a player with two All-Pro nods (one second-team) but no Pro Bowls. Can he snap the streak in his age-30 campaign? Patra seems to believe so.

Carlson Entering Pivotal Contract Year With Raiders

Earning that honor would be a big-time development for Carlson. At this stage of his career, he’s due for another contract. The four-year pact he signed with the Raiders back in 2021, worth $18.4 million, is now on its expiring season. According to Over The Cap, his average annual salary of $4.6M ranks 13th among all NFL kickers. He’s better than that.

In June, Carlson commented on the prospect of signing another long-term deal with Las Vegas.

“Going on year eight as a Raider now, that’s essentially been my whole career,” Carlson said. “Just honored to be a part of this historic organization and excited about where we’re headed this year and the direction we’re going as a program. So if [an extension] happens, I’d love that, but I’m focused on the football side.”

One situation to monitor is that of Boswell. He’s coming off the aforementioned Pro Bowl berth that also contributed to him making first-team All-Pro. Despite his age (34), he’s also due for a raise. The Pittsburgh star is making an average of $5M per year right now. Should he sign before Carlson, it’d undoubtedly have an impact on the latter’s market in a good way for the player.

The Raiders have already displayed a willingness to lock up their special-teamers. Punter AJ Cole is slated to be in town through 2029.

Perhaps Patra is right and the Smith and Jeanty-led offense puts Carlson in better positions to succeed. Should that be the case, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him make that elusive Pro Bowl team and eventually cash out in due time.